Urea and compound fertilizers are unstable, and diammonium phosphate can't hold up?

　　After the compound fertilizer meeting, urea couldn't hold its price, and compound fertilizers also saw low-price, limited-payment collection phenomena. The fertilizer market is in disarray, with most industry insiders adopting a wait-and-see approach and lacking market confidence. However, urea prices have rebounded slightly in the past two days. Traders' dumping has led to the gradual disappearance of low-priced goods in the market, and downstream buyers have switched to purchasing urea from factories. Overall market sentiment has improved, confidence in urea has risen, and urea prices are gradually recovering. Compound fertilizer companies are offering sporadic quotes, mainly focusing on buyout transactions. Currently, mainstream prices are unclear. Industry insiders say that urea stabilization may be necessary before compound fertilizer winter storage price policies are introduced.

　　Industry insiders believe that if urea and compound fertilizers cannot stabilize, diammonium phosphate may also fail to hold its price and risk further price decreases. Following the compound fertilizer meeting, diammonium phosphate companies have indeed lowered their quotes, especially companies in Hubei Province. The ex-factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate from these companies was around 3600 yuan/ton before, but now it has dropped to 3500-3550 yuan/ton. However, it is understood that the actual ex-factory prices of various companies have not changed much from before, with only minor decreases in some cases. The current low-end actual ex-factory price is slightly below 3500 yuan. Even with the decrease, the drop is not large for now. The intended arrival price of 64% diammonium phosphate in Heilongjiang is currently 3770-3850 yuan/ton. However, industry insiders believe that the diammonium phosphate Price cannot hold, and a wait-and-see atmosphere is prevalent.

　　What about the situation of monoammonium phosphate? After the compound fertilizer meeting, the monoammonium phosphate Price has indeed declined. Although the quotes from most companies still remain at previous levels, the actual transaction prices are falling. It is understood that the actual ex-factory Price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in Hubei is around 3200-3300 yuan/ton. There are also reports of a low ex-warehouse Price of 3360 yuan/ton for 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in Niyuquan Port, but after verification, the source is unknown, and the Price is not the mainstream Price. Currently, the Price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate from large manufacturers in Hubei at Niyuquan Port is 3450 yuan/ton, which is not much different from the previous port Price of 3480 yuan/ton for 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate. This is mainly because the recent demand for monoammonium phosphate is still relatively weak.

　　As mentioned earlier, compound fertilizer companies are currently only offering sporadic quotes, and mainstream winter storage prices remain unclear. With urea prices unstable, compound fertilizer prices may also be difficult to finalize. Currently, the overall operating rate of compound fertilizer companies is still around 30%, with no significant increase. The consumption of monoammonium phosphate inventories previously reserved by companies is slow. It is understood that the inventory of monoammonium phosphate raw materials for some large-scale enterprises in Northeast China is still sufficient, and they are not in a hurry to make new purchases. Coupled with the industry's view that monoammonium phosphate still faces a decline risk and the overall fertilizer market is volatile, new purchase plans are limited, and only relatively low-priced monoammonium phosphate will be purchased.